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Historical Trends Suggest Bitcoin Has Plenty of Upside Left
The 200-Week Simple Moving Average: A Key Indicator
The 200-week simple moving average (SMA) of bitcoin’s price, which smooths out short-term market fluctuations to provide a clearer picture of the overall trend, currently stands at $44,200. While this average is at its highest point ever, it is still significantly below the previous bull market’s peak of $69,000 in November 2021.
Past Bull Markets: A Pattern to Follow?
Past data show that bull markets end with the 200-week SMA rising to the record prices established in the preceding bull run. For instance, the previous bull market ended in late 2021 with the 200-week SMA rising to $19,000, the 2017 bull market peak. Similarly, the bull market of 2017 ended in December of that year, with the 200-week SMA rising to the record price of over $1,200 set four years ago.
If Past Trends Hold True, Expect an Uptrend
If past trends hold true, bitcoin’s current range between $90,000 and $110,000 will likely resolve bullishly, paving the way for the next upward movement.
Options Market: A Bullish Outlook
The pricing of options on Deribit also supports the bullish outlook offered by the 200-week SMA. For example, according to data source Amberdata, options with expirations of three months or longer show that call options are more expensive than put options, indicating a market expectation of rising prices. Furthermore, most open interest is concentrated in call options at strikes higher than BTC’s going market price of $96,700, reflecting bullish expectations.
Conclusion
In conclusion, historical trends suggest that bitcoin has plenty of upside left. The 200-week SMA, a key indicator, is at its highest point ever, and past bull markets have followed a pattern of the 200-week SMA rising to the record prices established in the preceding bull run. The options market also indicates a bullish outlook, with call options being more expensive than put options and most open interest concentrated in call options at strikes higher than the current market price.
FAQs
Q: What is the 200-week simple moving average (SMA) of bitcoin’s price?
A: The 200-week SMA of bitcoin’s price is currently at $44,200.
Q: How does the 200-week SMA affect the price of bitcoin?
A: The 200-week SMA smooths out short-term market fluctuations to provide a clearer picture of the overall trend, indicating whether the market is in an uptrend or a downtrend.
Q: What is the significance of the 200-week SMA in bull markets?
A: In bull markets, the 200-week SMA tends to rise to the record prices established in the preceding bull run, indicating a strong uptrend.
Q: What is the current price of bitcoin?
A: The current price of bitcoin is $96,700.
Q: What is the outlook for bitcoin according to the options market?
A: The options market is bullish, with call options being more expensive than put options and most open interest concentrated in call options at strikes higher than the current market price.
