Asteroid 2024 YR4: Impact Probability Drops to 0.16%

You can breathe now, the Earth isn’t going to end by an asteroid hit—yet.

Astronomers monitoring a potentially catastrophic asteroid have seen its odds of hitting Earth drop dramatically, as new observations refined its predicted trajectory.

The impact probability of asteroid 2024 YR4 has fallen from 2.8% to just 0.16%, according to the latest data from the European Space Agency’s Near-Earth Object Coordination Centre. This significant reduction comes after refined orbital calculations based on recent observations narrowed the “uncertainty window” of its path.

Impact Probability Has Shifted

The asteroid’s impact probability has fluctuated wildly since its discovery. In early January 2025, NASA reported a probability above 1%. By mid-February, this figure peaked at 3.1%—the highest ever recorded for an object of this size—before dropping to the current estimate.

Ground-based telescopes will continue tracking 2024 YR4 until early April 2025, when NASA argues it will become too faint to detect. The James Webb Space Telescope is scheduled to observe the asteroid in March 2025 to better assess its size and further refine orbit calculations.

After April, astronomers face a lengthy observation gap. The asteroid won’t be visible again until 2028, meaning no updates to the impact probability will be possible for three years. This leaves the current 0.16% probability as the standing estimate until then.

While the current 0.16% probability is relatively low, it remains non-zero and significantly higher than many everyday risks. For comparison, the probability of solo mining a Bitcoin block is 0.098%—and it has happened, several times.

Astronomers Consider Next Steps

The International Asteroid Warning Network and Space Mission Planning Advisory Group are considering next steps, given that the probability was above 1% earlier in February. These UN-endorsed organizations coordinate global efforts to detect and respond to potential asteroid threats.

Conclusion

The latest observations have significantly reduced the impact probability of asteroid 2024 YR4, but it is essential to remain vigilant and continue monitoring its trajectory. The International Asteroid Warning Network and Space Mission Planning Advisory Group will continue to coordinate global efforts to detect and respond to potential asteroid threats, ensuring the safety of our planet.

FAQs

Q: What is the current impact probability of asteroid 2024 YR4?

A: The current impact probability is 0.16%.

Q: What does the 0.16% probability mean?

A: The 0.16% probability means that there is a 0.16% chance that the asteroid will hit Earth.

Q: What is the next step for astronomers?

A: Astronomers will continue to track the asteroid’s trajectory and refine its orbit calculation until it becomes too faint to detect in early April 2025. The James Webb Space Telescope will observe the asteroid in March 2025 to better assess its size and further refine orbit calculations.

Q: What is the significance of the 0.16% probability?

A: The 0.16% probability is significantly higher than many everyday risks, but it is still relatively low. For comparison, the probability of solo mining a Bitcoin block is 0.098%—and it has happened, several times.