Bitcoin Might Be Flat, But Traders Have Their Eyes on This Shiny New Token: Analysis

Bitcoin might be uninteresting for traders at the moment, but there’s at least one altcoin today that’s got the market buzzing—and it’s all stemming from an eye-popping tie-up with the leading crypto exchange in the U.S., Coinbase.

First, the backdrop: The global cryptocurrency market isn’t doing much right now, sitting at around a $3.25 trillion market cap and pretty much flat in the past 24 hours. But that might be welcome news for the crypto investors who already suffered heavy losses earlier this week. Plus, if we zoom out, total crypto market capitalization is up for the year, gaining roughly $500 million in the last three months.

The Crypto Fear & Greed Index sits near 65, reflecting neutral-to-bullish sentiment that supports dip accumulation rather than panic exits. Recent geopolitical tensions involving the Israel-Iran conflict, the potential involvement of the United States in the war, and $1.2 billion in leveraged liquidations have created market turbulence.

But despite the short-term volatility, institutional support for crypto remains robust with U.S.-based ETFs having sustained net inflows during the last two weeks, and BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust rapidly surpassing the $70 billion mark in assets under management.

Bitcoin: Testing support levels

Bitcoin is currently trading at around $103,7410, a very close to the $104,000 support level. The daily chart reveals a consolidation phase that could determine the next major move. Trading volume decreased to $49.4 billion, down 10% from yesterday.

The technical picture shows Bitcoin at a crucial inflection point, but still neutral to bearish based on the overall pattern of lower highs ($112k, $110k, $108k) since May, meaning bulls are still able to make the price bounce—just not enough to keep momentum.

The Average Directional Index, or ADX, which measures how strong a price trend is, confirms the pattern. Sitting right now at 16 points in a “No Trend” zone, the indicator points to a consolidation phase instead of strong directional momentum. This sideways action often precedes significant moves in either direction. Generally speaking, a trend is solid if the indicator is over 21 points.

The Relative Strength Index, or RSI, measures how natural the price movement of a coin might be. Right now, it hovers at 45, placing Bitcoin in neutral territory, with traders waiting to see what happens next.

The 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages, or EMAs, both show a long signal with the golden cross pattern still intact, supporting the longer-term bullish structure. A “golden cross,” in trader parlance, happens when the short term prices (represented by the EMA50) cross over the long term average (represented by the EMA200) and is generally interpreted as a bullish sign.

Key technical levels to monitor:

• Immediate resistance: $106,500 (recent rejection zone)
• Major resistance: $108,800-$110,000 (psychological zone where sellers have consistently defended)
• Critical resistance: $112,000 (all-time high region)
• Immediate support: $102,000-$103,000 (current test zone)
• Major support: $100,000 (psychological level)
• Critical support: $93,200 (200-day EMA region)

AERO: Defying market gravity

While Bitcoin consolidates and most altcoins bleed, Aerodrome Finance, which trades as AERO, is today’s brightest star, surging more than 80% in June and 14.78% today, to its current price of $0.8379. Aerodrome markets itself as “the central trading and liquidity marketplace” on Coinbase’s Ethereum layer-2 network Base.

Late last week, Aerodrome Finance announced that its DEX is going to be integrating “directly” into the main Coinbase app. The same one you likely already have installed on your phone. This means Aerodrome will soon gain exposure to Coinbase’s 10.8 million monthly active users. So, yeah, it’s easy to see why traders are bullish on AERO, which currently enjoys a $680 million market cap on a $1.3 billion fully diluted valuation.

The daily chart for AERO confirms the obvious: exceptionally strong bullish momentum. The price has decisively broken above the critical $0.78 resistance level. This breakout occurred on substantial volume, confirming genuine buying interest at least in the short term.

The ADX reading of 30 with a long trend signal indicates moderate to strong trend strength developing. Unlike Bitcoin’s directionless ADX of 16, AERO’s 30 reading suggests a directional move is underway with increasing momentum.

The RSI sits at 65.96—bullish without reaching overbought territory above 70. This leaves room for further upside before technical indicators suggest exhaustion. The 50-day EMA is going upwards looking to cross over the 200-period EMA to produce a golden cross. If this happens, then the bullish correction can be confirmed as a serious price trend, as the average price of the token in the short term would be higher than the price of the token a long time ago.

Key technical targets and levels:

• Immediate resistance: $0.88 (23.6% Fibonacci level and the week’s high)
• Major resistance: $1.30 (50% Fibonacci retracement, psychological level and the the point in which the death cross happened)
• Extended target: $1.40-$1.60 (if momentum continues)
• Support levels: $0.70 (psychological level)
• Next support: $0.66 (weak target)
• Critical support: $0.55