In brief
- Bitcoin has dropped about 19% from its October all-time high, with analysts attributing the decline to a U.S. government shutdown that drained $700 billion from markets through the Treasury General Account.
- The TGA has swelled to $1 trillion during the shutdown, creating a liquidity crisis as cash is removed from the private financial system and unavailable for lending or investment.
- BitMEX analysts expect a strong relief rally when the shutdown ends and hundreds of billions are injected back into markets, suggesting Bitcoin’s 4-year cycle isn’t finished yet.
Bitcoin already seemed to be nearing the end of its lengthy bull run when the U.S. government shutdown accelerated the pace of decline, analysts told Decrypt.
They noted that the increase in the government’s Treasury General Account (TGA), which has sapped asset markets, including crypto, of needed capital.
“The U.S. government shutdown had pushed the Treasury’s TGA account to $1 trillion, sucking approximately $700 billion from the market, and sent overnight repo, or SRF, usage to record highs, starving risk assets of capital,” BitMEX analysts told Decrypt.
Bitcoin was trading at about $102,600, down 3.3% over the past 24 hours. The largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization has fallen more than 10% over the past two weeks and is off 18% since hitting its all-time high in early October.
During a government shutdown, federal agencies dramatically slow or stop discretionary spending. But the TGA maintained by the Federal Reserve, continues to issue debt and collect tax revenue. ‘
Cash held in the TGA represents money that’s left the private financial system and is no longer sitting in banks, used for lending, or being invested in money market funds, therefore creating a liquidity crisis.
The SRF, or Standard Repo Facility, is a tool used by the Fed to manage short-term funding and keep money markets stable. When SRF usage is rising, the analysts said, it’s typically a sign that banks and other financial institutions are short on cash.
BitMEX analysts are optimistic that the U.S. government shutdown will end soon. But it’s already one day shy of pulling even with the 35-day record for the longest shutdown in the country’s history.
When it does, the analysts said the TGA would begin spending again and inject hundreds of billions back into markets.
“This massive liquidity ‘snap-back’ should trigger a strong relief rally, aligning perfectly with Bitcoin’s historical end-of-year seasonal strength,” they said.
They added that the current turmoil is evidence that BTC’s latest 4-year cycle isn’t over.
For months analysts have said this cycle is ending. They often note that in 2024, Bitcoin set a new all-time high after the approval of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs and ahead of its fourth halving–an unprecedented occurrence.
In the past, Bitcoin has usually set a new all-time high after its halving and then falls between 70-80% during the following year.
“We think the current crypto market correction is being driven by a ‘perfect storm’ of Bitcoin’s 4-year cycle and a macro-liquidity crisis,” they said.
They added that there were already signs that the bull run was coming to a close, citing “profit-taking from long-term OG holders in recent months.”
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