Key Events This Week to Reignite Market Activity

FTX Payout

FTX, the world’s former third-largest digital assets exchange, is set to begin its first round of creditor payouts after going bust in late 2022. The first group to receive payments are Convenience class creditors, who will receive full repayment and a 9% annual post-petition interest. While optimism is high that the recipients will rotate this money into the market, lifting valuations across the board, not everyone agrees.

Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research, notes that the distribution of approximately $1.2 billion to Convenience Class creditors is "too small to move the needle." He estimates that only $7 billion from the remaining $10.5 billion allocated to bigger creditors could be available for potential crypto investment, and even then, only 50% of that amount could return to the market, resulting in a net inflow of over $3 billion, which is just one month’s worth of net inflows into the bitcoin market.

Mena Theodorou, co-founder at crypto exchange Coinstash, expects small creditors to put some money into Solana. "FTX’s historic investments in SOL and the Solana ecosystem make it likely that some of these funds will flow back into the network, especially since SOL has been a standout performer, rising over 500% in the past year, with strong on-chain activity and developer growth continuing to fuel demand. SOL could potentially outperform the broader market."

Trump-Musk Call

U.S. President Donald Trump and billionaire investor Elon Musk will sit down with Fox News host Sean Hannity for an exclusive interview. The discussion will likely focus on issues such as politics, tariffs, immigration, and potentially digital assets, all of which could breed market volatility.

"Trump is set to speak in an exclusive interview with Elon Musk on Fox News on February 19 – just one day before the FOMC meeting on February 20," Coinstash’s Theodorou said. "Given Trump’s increasing alignment with crypto and Musk’s close ties with the space, this interview could drive market volatility, particularly if they touch on policy, regulation, or institutional adoption."

FOMC Minutes

On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve will release the minutes of its January meeting, during which the central bank held interest rates steady. The bank stated it was not in a hurry to cut rates and would want to see more progress on inflation.

The minutes are likely to repeat this message, especially as CPI and PPI for the month came in hotter than expected, denting the case for a rate reduction boost to the U.S. economy. Plus, Trump’s tariffs continue to raise the specter of inflation.

Traders will scan the minutes to see if policymakers thought the policy was restrictive, which would mean the next move might still be a rate cut. However, if the minutes suggest otherwise, we could see some volatility in bonds that could potentially weigh on risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.

Consensus Hong Kong

Consensus Hong Kong, CoinDesk’s three-day cryptocurrency- and blockchain-focused event, will kick off on Tuesday, featuring a deep dive into the blockchain and Web 3 space. With over 270 speakers and thousands of attendees from over 90 countries, the three-day affair will likely offer a unique perspective on blockchain technology and digital asset investing in Asia, potentially moving markets.

Conclusion

This week, several key events could reignite market activity, including the FTX payout, the Trump-Musk call, and the FOMC minutes. While some experts are optimistic about the potential for a market boost, others are more cautious, noting that the amounts involved may be too small to make a significant impact.

FAQs

Q: What is the expected impact of the FTX payout on the market?
A: Some experts predict that the payout could lead to a boost in market activity, while others believe the amounts involved are too small to make a significant difference.

Q: What is the significance of the Trump-Musk call?
A: The call could drive market volatility, particularly if the two discuss policy, regulation, or institutional adoption.

Q: What can we expect from the FOMC minutes?
A: The minutes are likely to repeat the Federal Reserve’s message that it is not in a hurry to cut rates, which could lead to volatility in bonds and risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.