Bitcoin is trading near a critical technical resistance as multiple macroeconomic factors reshape capital allocation patterns in U.S. markets.
Technical Analysis
Caleb Franzen highlighted how BTC has broken out of a multi-month descending channel while consolidating above both its 200-day simple and exponential moving averages, indicating resilience near the $85,000 level.
Cauê Oliveira, Head of Research and on-chain analyst at BlockTrends, pointed out that the spot order book shows equilibrium on both sides, with liquidity concentrations above the current price. This suggests a potential upward movement toward $88,500 if $85,500 holds.
Macro Uncertainty
This technical positioning coincides with a surge in macro uncertainty. Oliveira shared a chart from LSEG Datastream that shows a sharp reversal in foreign official demand for U.S. equities, with net monthly flows from foreign central banks turning deeply negative in 2025.
The liquidation of U.S. assets, including equities, Treasuries, and the dollar, has raised questions about confidence in U.S. capital markets’ stability. As Oliveira noted, this synchronized selling undermines the structural basis of U.S. economic support and may prompt policy intervention that is unlikely to materialize given its self-inflicted nature.
Tariffs and Capital Redirection
Simultaneously, Jim Bianco of Bianco Research highlighted the revised estimates for the average U.S. tariff rate to 22.8 percent, nearly ten times higher than the prior year and the steepest level since the early 20th century.
The imposition of elevated tariffs, primarily on China, could accelerate capital redirection away from U.S. markets, amplifying foreign divestment.
Further, some businesses are already stating that moving manufacturing outside the US is a more profitable strategy under currently elevated import taxes. For example, Mr. Beast commented that his global chocolate brand, Feastables, is cheaper to manufacture abroad due to tariffs.
Conclusion
These factors contextualize Bitcoin’s current price behavior as a sign of strength amid weakening international confidence in U.S. instruments. As the macroeconomic environment continues to evolve, it is essential to monitor these developments and their impact on global capital markets.
FAQs
Q: What is the current price of Bitcoin?
A: The current price of Bitcoin is near the $85,000 level.
Q: What is the technical analysis of Bitcoin’s current price behavior?
A: According to Caleb Franzen, BTC has broken out of a multi-month descending channel while consolidating above both its 200-day simple and exponential moving averages, indicating resilience near the $85,000 level.
Q: What is the impact of tariffs on U.S. capital markets?
A: The imposition of elevated tariffs, primarily on China, could accelerate capital redirection away from U.S. markets, amplifying foreign divestment, and may prompt policy intervention that is unlikely to materialize given its self-inflicted nature.
Q: How does this impact the global economy?
A: The surge in macro uncertainty and the liquidation of U.S. assets, including equities, Treasuries, and the dollar, raises questions about confidence in U.S. capital markets’ stability and may have a ripple effect on the global economy.
Q: What is the significance of the average U.S. tariff rate?
A: The revised estimates for the average U.S. tariff rate to 22.8 percent, nearly ten times higher than the prior year and the steepest level since the early 20th century, underscores the significant impact of tariffs on international trade and capital flows.
Q: How does this impact the future of Bitcoin?
A: As the macroeconomic environment continues to evolve, it is essential to monitor these developments and their impact on global capital markets, which may influence the future price behavior of Bitcoin.
