AI Returns Similar Output to the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative’s Calculations
Questions have swirled as to whether the U.S. government relied on generative AI to establish the tariffs that are expected to take effect April 5. When asked to calculate global tariffs, AI models including OpenAI’s ChatGPT, Google’s Gemini, xAI’s Grok, and Anthropic’s Claude all produced the same formula reportedly used by President Donald Trump in his newly unveiled trade reforms.
Critics argue that tasking a generative AI with formulating a policy decision of global significance sets an alarming precedent — one that underscores both the superficiality of its calculations and the magnitude of its consequences.
Increased U.S. tariffs could significantly raise the cost of consumer and business electronics.
The White House’s Equation
Early on April 3, economist James Surowiecki posted his investigation into the tariffs. The White House set out to impose “reciprocal tariffs.” However, Surowiecki noted, the document from the Office of the United States Trade Representative showing the equation used to determine those tariffs divides the U.S. trade deficit by each country’s exports to the U.S. This, Surowiecki said, is not reciprocal.
Economist Wojtek Kopczuk asked ChatGPT to calculate tariffs to balance out the U.S. trade deficit. He received a similar answer to the White House’s documentation, showing the AI used “a basic approach” that divided the trade deficit by the total trade. Entrepreneur Amy Hoy ran a similar experiment, yielding identical results from AI models.
The AI’s Role in the Equation
The White House has not made a statement regarding potential AI use in the creation of the equation used to calculate the tariffs. So, we don’t know whether the equation was generated by AI or what prompt may have been used to create it; however, the uniform and straightforward response to a complex economic issue does bear the hallmarks of generative AI.
Elon Musk, CEO of Grok maker xAI, is currently serving as a special government employee to the Trump administration.
Trump Team Suggests Tariffs Will Encourage U.S. Business
The Trump administration has stated high tariffs could encourage U.S. manufacturing and create revenue for the government. The goal of the reciprocal tariffs is to “to ensure fair trade, protect American workers, and reduce the trade deficit,” according to the White House statement.
Trump and his team, meanwhile, may see the high tariff percentages as a negotiating tactic, as Donald Trump’s son Eric Trump wrote on X on April 3.
“The first to negotiate will win — the last will absolutely lose. I have seen this movie my entire life…,” Eric Trump wrote.
Some Countries Are Exempt from Tariff Adjustment
Countries with steep Trump-era taxes on goods coming into the U.S. — notably Canada and Mexico — are exempt from the new wave of tariffs. Russia remains exempt due to existing sanctions, as do countries like North Korea and Cuba.
Criticism and Uncertainty
Critics argue that the high tariffs could lead to unintended consequences, such as a trade war, increased costs for consumers, and decreased economic growth.
As the tariffs take effect, it remains unclear how the U.S. economy will respond. The uncertainty surrounding the tariffs has already led to market volatility and concerns about the potential impact on global trade.
Conclusion
The use of generative AI in policy decisions raises significant concerns about the potential for bias, lack of transparency, and unintended consequences. As the U.S. government continues to explore the use of AI in policy-making, it is essential to ensure that these models are transparent, accountable, and subject to human oversight.
FAQs
Q: What are the tariffs?
A: The tariffs are a set of taxes imposed by the U.S. government on imported goods. The tariffs are expected to take effect April 5.
Q: What is the purpose of the tariffs?
A: The purpose of the tariffs is to “to ensure fair trade, protect American workers, and reduce the trade deficit,” according to the White House statement.
Q: Which countries are exempt from the tariffs?
A: Countries with steep Trump-era taxes on goods coming into the U.S. — notably Canada and Mexico — are exempt from the new wave of tariffs. Russia remains exempt due to existing sanctions, as do countries like North Korea and Cuba.
Q: Was AI used in the creation of the tariffs?
A: The White House has not made a statement regarding potential AI use in the creation of the equation used to calculate the tariffs. However, the uniform and straightforward response to a complex economic issue does bear the hallmarks of generative AI.
Q: What are the potential consequences of the tariffs?
A: The tariffs could lead to unintended consequences, such as a trade war, increased costs for consumers, and decreased economic growth.
